Erna Solberg keeps her grip on the voters

The Christian Democrats (KrF) has dropped below the barrier threshold on the average of the polls made in November. Erna Solberg (Conservatives) would However still remain as Prime Minister if the elections where held right now.

The average of seven polls published in November would, according to the Poll of Polls, provide a majority of 87 mandates for the Government parties, the Conservatives and the Progress Party, together with the budget partners, the Liberals and KrF.

On the opposite side under umbrella of Labour leader, Jonas Gahr Støre, there would have been 82 parliamentary representatives distributed between the Labour Party (Ap), the Socialist Party (SV), Center Party (SP), Red (Rødt) and The Greens (MDG).

The Conservatives (Høyre) biggest

Even with the autumn’s bourgeois tug-of-war for budget funds, controversy about the “October Children” or the Minister of Fisheries’, Per Sandberg (Frp), roundhouse blow, changed a lot in the parties’ support base from October to November. The biggest changes in the average of the polls in the last month are that the support for the Greens have dropped by 1.1 percentage points, which is more than a quarter of their voter base.

Compared to September’s election results, there are however some trends:

KrF is below the barrier limit for the second month in a row.
The Conservatives are still growing and is still marginally larger than Labour.
The non-socialist block maintains the majority of the voters.

Difficult for Hareide

KrF is struggling in the polls. Six out of seven polls in November are below the election result of 4.2 percent. Three of the polls are even below the barrier limit – which gives an average of 3.8 percent. This is unchanged from October, but cements the downward spiral.

Party leader Knut Arild Hareide’s teamd of eight representatives would have been reduced to only three if the November polls had been the election result.

The barrier is also a threat to the Liberals, but the party after all The barrier is also a threat to the Liberals, but the party after all for the second consecutive month hangs on to a 4.3 per cent average, in effect the same as the election result.

The Conservatives gain four seats

Labour under Støre is struggling to repeat to the winning recipe from the first half of 2017. The average in November is 26.2 per cent. It is on par with October, but a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the parliamentary elections.

The Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Erna Solberg , on the other hand, keeps their hold on the voters. The growth of 1.4 percentage points to 26.4 per cent for Høyre is on par with the October average.

In addition, the Conservatives garnish four more mandates than in the parliamentary elections. Thus, the bourgeois majority is preserved, despite the fact that KrF has lost an hypottical five representatives.

Regjeringspartner Frp har et gjennomsnitt i november på 14,6 prosent, etter målinger som varierer fra 12,7 til 16,1 prosent. Frp ligger nå 0,6 prosentpoeng under valgresultatet, men 0,7 prosentpoeng over snittet i forrige måned.

MDG avalanche

The biggest change from last month is for the Green Party. The MDG average of 2.8 per cent is 0.4 below the election result, and 1.1 percentage points weaker than the average in October.

For Red, the form curve looks to point the other way. The average of 3 per cent in November is 0.6 percentage points above the election result and on the same level as the October figures.

Also SV is in on the rise. The average of 6.9 per cent in November is 0.9 percentage points above the election result and 0.3 percentage points up from October.

The Center Party’s support is stable so far this autumn. The November average of 10.5 per cent is up 0.2 from the election and unchanged from last month.