Analysis group with four Norwegian refugee scenarios

A government appointed analysis group came to four possible scenarios for the refugee stream to Norway and Europe.

One possible outcome is that last year’s refugee crisis is repeated.

The group was appointed as a result of the increase in the number of refugees who came to Norway in 2015, writes newspaper Aftenposten.

The first scenario is referred to as a “best case scenario” and assumes that the agreement between the EU and Turkey can stand. It may mean that Norway in a short period gets a slight increase in the number of unregistered asylum seekers.

Option number two is what happens if the agreement works and refugees choose to steer clear of Turkey. It may lead to refugees choosing new, more dangerous routes to Europe. The scenario is considered possible or probable, and may result in increased number of arrivals to Norway.

“Worst case” will be a violation of the agreement with Turkey, which is outlined in scenario number three. Initially, it may lead to lower arrival numbers to Norway as a consequence of increased border controls along the itinerary through Europe, while in the long term it can lead to a collapse in EU efforts for common solutions.

The fourth and final scenario is considered unlikely, and implies that the Arctic route is opened, and that Russia again opens for transit towards Norway.

 

Source: NTB scanpix / Norway Today