The election may end with just four parties in the Parliament
Autumn elections may have a historic outcome, according to analysts, with only four parties above the barrier threshold.
The Liberals, Christian Democrats and the Socialist Party are all at risk of ending with two representatives each in Parliament. The Green Party and Red can come in with one each. This is shown in the polls this spring, both individually and calculated as an average.
The remainder of the Parliament, 161 mandates, will then be divided between the Labour Party (Ap), the Centre Party (SP), the Conservatives (H) and the Progress Party (FrP).
Ap and Sp are currently looking to secure a majority if the election ends with four major and five micro parties in the parliament.
More than theory
Three experts agree that such a outcome is not unthinkable.
– It’s more than a theoretical possibility that the autumn’s election ends with only four parties coming above the barrier threshold, analyst Johan Giertsen says at a recent seminar for journalists. This according Poll of polls
– It is such a small distance to the barrier limit that there is a real possibility, states election analyst Svein Tore Marthinsen to NTB.
– The big growth of the Centre Party is a major threat to both the Liberals and Christian Democrats, because these two are so close to the barrier threshold. If Labour holds its position, and the Socialists sink below, states professor of comparative politics, Frank Aarebrot.
The difference between an election result of 3.9 or 4.0 percent is that the parliamentary group is 1-2 or 7-8 representatives.
The Liberals has an average of 3.7 percent in April. they have been under 4 percent since February.
The average for KrF is 4.8 percent, and the party seems to be on a descending curve from an average of 5.2 percent in January.
SV has largely ended in the 3’s throughout most of the parliamentary term, but has over the last half year been above the barrier threshold. The April average is 4.6 per cent.
KrF best positioned
Of the three parties KrF has the most loyal electorate. The Liberals and SV struggle to hold on to the voters from previous election. Christian Democrat loyalty suggests that it is likely that they will clear the threshold, the experts’ state.
– The bedrock is so large that I think KrF will be saved from falling below the threshold. I’m pretty, but not quite sure that KrF will end up above 4 percent, says Marthinsen.
– With the country’s third largest party organization, KrF also has great capacity to mobilize. The barrier limit is threatening close though, says Aarebrot.
At the previous parliamentary elections seven parties crossed the barrier threshold. In addition, the MDG was represented by a mandate. In recent times there has never been fewer than five parties over the threshold in the Parliament.
Aarbrot emphasizes that the barrier limit can determine the outcome of the election:
– If KrF saves itself, it is still a close race. If either SV or the Liberals fall below, it will alone be able to sway the majority one way or the other. If both sink below, it evens out.
– If we get three parties just above the barrier limit – but all around 4 percent – the electoral system means that these three will share close to all the 19 equalizing seats between them, says the professor at the University of Bergen.
Broad support needed
Based on the average of the measurements in April; Ap, Sp and SV will require support from either MDG or Red to secure majority if SV is adjusted down to 3.9 percent and the Liberals reach 4.0 percent.
© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today