Hareide joker in tight Prime Minister Duel
The Liberals (Venstre) are in serious trouble and the Center Party (Senterpartiet) becomes one of the election’s winners. If the Prime Minister is named Erna or Jonas night to September 12, is harder to predict. Hareide joker in the fight for the Prime Minister chair.
Barely four months before the elections, the parties have had their national conventions, made decisions and carved out new programs. Much has happened, but the picture is largely unchanged from this winter.
Red-Green majority makes Labours’ Jonas Gahr Støre Prime Minister, while the Conservatives’ Erna Solberg will remain if a continued non-socialist majority.
The joker is called Knut Arild Hareide and is the leader of the Christian Democrats (KrF)
Are KrF on the move?
Two of those who have followed the country’s meeting closely are NRK commentator Lars Nehru Sand and Aftenposten’s political editor Trine Eilertsen. None of them dares to say who is Prime Minister after the election.
– If the Liberals are below the barrier threshold, it is much less likely that Erna Solberg will continue as Prime Minister, says Sand. He is keen to know how the Christian Democrat’s plan B will play out.
– Christian Democrats want Erna Solberg as Prime Minister, but if it does not play out, the party has an opening to do something else. In this context, it means pointing at Jonas Gahr Støre, he says.
Thinks KrF might turn their cloak
With the Liberals below the barrier limit, KrF could point at Støre at some point, believes Eilertsen from Aftenposten.
– Many in the Christian Democrats would do that with clenched teeth. This is no prediction and simply nothing that needs to play out already on the election night. It is, however, an idea that has matured in the party and which also was expressed at the Congress, she says.
She adds that it may be easier for the Christian Democrats to switch sides if the Center Party does as well as the party is likely to do at the moment, because the Parties in the Center’s overall strength will be larger.
The Liberals in dire straits
At the moment it looks darkest for the Liberals, according to the experts. It is highly likely that the party falls below the barrier limit of 4 percent and lose the important equalizing mandates.
– The Greens (MDG) will most likely fall below the barrier limit, while the Socialist Party (SV) probably ends up just above. For KrF, I think the result ends closer to the barrier limit than the party itself is comfortable with, but I do not think that they drop below, says Sand.
The Labor Party has spent four years in opposition to one of the blue-est governments in Norwegian history. Yet is not the party in the polls significantly over election results from last time at 30.8 percent. Such a result would be perceived as a failure, according to the NRK commentator.
– If Labour is closer to 35 than 30 percent, will decide whether the election campaign was good or bad for Støre, says Sand.
Vedum with wind in the sails
The national convention Spring has been dominated by the Center Party, but otherwise has been rather predictable, is the ruling from Eilertsen and Sand.
That district politics and centralization have become such a big topic, is perhaps the only thing that was not so easy to predict before Christmas. But it is clear that the other parties are now trying to find answers to the Center Party’s strong growth, says Sand.
Themes such as defense policy, tax levels, employment and job growth have dominated the national conventions. Value-based questions about the KRLE subject, surrogacy, egg donation and circumcision, and themes such as teacher education and child welfare are other contenders.
And in at least one area, spring has provided the basis for new policies:- All parties have in various ways advocated that possession of doses of drugs should not be punished. that is new, says Sand.
© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today