Continued majority for Gahr Støre in May

Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre May vocationalLabor leader Jonas Gahr Støre Photo: regjeringen.no

Continued majority for the Red-Green and Gahr Støre in May

 

Labour’s (Ap) decline is halting and Centre Party (Sp) growth slows down in May. This is shown by the average of the polls four months before the parliamentary elections. The chances that Norway’s next Prime Minister is called Jonas Gahr Støre in May next year is unchanged.

 

The average of nine national polls published in May, which Poll of polls has calculated, shows small changes from April.

The most interesting features are that the Labour Party’s steady drop from 36.6 per cent in October last year has now slowed down. The average in May was 31.7 per cent, which is 0.1 percentage point up from April. At the same time, the Centre Party’s growth of 7 per cent at the end of last year has stopped at 12.3 per cent – unchanged from April.

Barrier limit

In addition, The Socialist Party (SV) is above the barrier limit for the seventh consecutive month. This means a majority of 88 mandates to the red-green coalition, if the elections are held now.

But SV lives dangerously. The average was 4.2 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points from April. The party was measured below the barrier limit in three of the nine parliamentary polls published in May.

Possible leak

The Government’s partners Venstre and KrF also fight against the barrier limit. The Liberals ended at 3.2 per cent in May (-0.5), which is the party’s weakest in this parliamentary term. This is the fourth consecutive month below the barrier limit. The Liberals ended below 4 per cent in eight out of nine polls in May.

The Christian Democrats (KrF) lands on 4.7 per cent on average in May. It’s down only 0.1 percentage points from April, but more interesting; it is the party’s weakest in half a year. KrF has fallen below the barrier limit in two of nine measurements, and some of the background figures suggest a possible leak to the mini party – the Christians.

Stable for the “blue-blue”

Support for the coalition parties the Conservatives (H) and the Progress Party (FrP) has been remarkably stable since the cooperation parties lost their majority in the polls last October.

Overall, the two parties now reach 0.2 percentage points above the average from November last year. Høyre have 23.5 per cent and FrP 13.0 per cent support in May. This is 0.2 percentage points up for both since April.

Miniscule margins

Overall, today’s opposition parties would have 91 mandates versus 78 for the Government and its partners according to the average in May.

Then the Green Party stays inside with one mandate (2.8 percent) and Red with two mandates (2.6 percent). But Poll of polls emphasize that there is uncertainty about Red’s 2nd mandate because of the site’s calculation model.

 

If SV is adjusted to below 4 per cent, The Liberals above 4 per cent and the remaining are unchanged, the opposition’s majority shrinks to 86 against 83 mandates. If SV, the Liberals and KrF are all placed below the barrier limit, Labour and Sp end up with a majority and 87 mandates.

 

© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today

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