Party veterans predicts political thriller
The smaller parties tightrope walk on the barrier limit determines the Prime Minister duel between Solberg and Støre. But the suspense is probably not over on election night, according to party veterans.
– The final result may not be clear until the following day. It is nerve-wracking, says former Liberal leader, Odd Einar Dørum.
Former Prime Minister and Christian Democrats (KrF) leader, Kjell Magne Bondevik, believe the tensions in the Parliament may last well into the autumn.
– I think what’s going to happen in the first few weeks after the election this time is even more exciting and important than what happens before and during the election, he says.
Bondevik believes the options are unclear on both sides, which according to the KrF veteran can give unexpected twists in Norwegian politics.
– There are two clear Prime Minister Candidates, but who will stand behind them after the election is relatively unclear. This will be very exciting, he said during a debate in Arendal Monday.
The next day TV 2 with a poll that shows how big the impact is when the minor parties swap places around the barrier limit. In the poll, Labour is dependent on support from Red to get a majority. With a 4.7 percent upturn, the far left-hand Party breaks the important 4-percent limit that gives the right to equalization mandates.
Will make demands
In the TV 2 poll, MDG, SV and KRF are below the barrier limit, while the Liberals and Red are over. According to experts, it has long been clear that the five small parties’ struggle against the barrier limit will determine if the Prime Minister is called Støre or Solberg after the election.
Erna Solberg wants to collaborate with KrF, the Liberals and Frp, but KrF and the Liberals do not want to be in a Government with Frp. burgeois chaos is the verdict of the red-green parties. On the other hand, Labour’s Jonas Gahr Støre does not want to Govern together with MDG, Red or the Liberals – something that gets the blue side to talk about a “red-green stir with Støre”.
– Red will help secure the majority for a Labour led Government, but after that we will not give any guarantees before Støre approaches us, says Leader of Red, Bjørnar Moxnes, to NTB.
If many find the TV 2 measurement sensational, the Red Leader is not among them. He believes the measurement is part of a “long-term upward trend”.
– If Labour wants to negotiate a state budget with us, Støre must first give us a clear guarantee that the kindergartens act will be changed so that municipalities can prioritize ideal kindergartens rather than profit based nurseries. That is the admission ticket, says Moxnes.
So far in August, the site Poll of polls has collected six different polls that, on average, send Red, Left and MDG below the barrier limit, while KRF and SV end with 5 and 4.8 percent respectively. The TV 2 measurement is included in these calculations.
Facts about the parliamentary election system in Norway
(Source: Store norske leksikon)
- Based on direct elections and proportional representation in multi-member constituencies.
- Each of the county’s 19 counties constitutes a constituency.
- There are 169 representatives elected to the Parliament (Storting). The number of representatives from each constituency depends on the population and area. Counties with low population density get more representatives than the number of people would suggest.
- Of the representatives, 150 are elected as direct mandates based on election results in each county. One mandate from each county, is chosen as equalization mandates.
- The equalization mandates are distributed proportionally between the electoral lists, which have fewer direct mandates than their nationwide support indicates.
- Only parties that have reached the barrier limit of 4 percent of all votes cast are included in the distribution of equalization mandates.
© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today