It is already virtually guaranteed that 2016 will beat last year’s global heat record, according to researchers. The reason is the extreme temperatures so far this year.
That climatologists will declare new records long before midsummer,which is by no means common. But several weeks ago already, Gavin Schmidt, a manager in NASA was adamant:
2016 is 99 percent sure to be the warmest year ever recorded on the planet, he wrote on Twitter.
Schmidt gets support from Professor Tore Furevik, the head at Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen.
– It is almost certain that 2016 will set a new temperature record, he said.
Theoretically it is possible that the rest of the year will be unusually cold so the record will not hold, but this is unlikely, states Furevik.
– Insane increase
The reason that 2016 can quietly cruise into a new heat record, are the extremely high temperatures we’ve had so far worldwide.
Every month has shattered previous monthly records. February and March were about 1.5 degrees higher than in pre-industrial times – and have thus temporarily passed one of the limits that the countries at the climate summit in Paris said they would aim to stay below.
– This is an absolutely insane temperature increase, said physicist and climate researcher Bjorn Samset to NTB when the figures for February were ready.
Graphs showing temperatures over time, show a rise from the 1970s until the year 2000 before the increase trails off. From last year the arrows are pointing straight upwards, and the beginning of 2016 is hovering far above all previous measurements.
Source: NTB scanpix / Norway Today