Election win for Støre, first forecast shows

Jonas Gahr Støre 2Photo: Javad Parsa / NTB
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For the Labor Party, the forecast is far higher than the polls prior to the election indicated.

With a support of 26.5%, the Labor Party (AP) is the country’s largest party by a good margin, and party leader Jonas Gahr Støre is now very well placed to become the country’s next prime minister.

“What will be the outcome of the election, will be answered tonight. If there is a majority, we have been clear on what is plan A. Otherwise, we will have to take it in the order it comes. We will take plenty of time to talk to the other parties, and we have respect for the fact that this has not been decided until it has been decided,” Støre said on his way to the Labor Party’s election vigil on Youngstorget in Oslo Monday night.

In the election campaign, Støre has emphasized that the Labor Party has risen in the polls in the last six months after a long period marked by #MeToo, personal conflicts, and power struggles in the party.

But the support is also the Labor Party’s weakest in a parliamentary election since 2001. Before that, we have to go all the way back to 1924 to find a poorer election result for the “eagle” among the parties.

The winds have changed for Vedum

For the Center Party (SP) and leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, the forecast is two-sided.

According to the forecast, the Center Party is the party that is advancing the most compared to the election in 2017.

But this winter, the Center Party was for a period larger than the Labor Party in the polls with a support of over 20%. The trend reversed in February, and in August the party began to fall rapidly. The forecast now indicates a support of 14.7%.

This will be the Center Party’s best result in a parliamentary election since the EU-influenced election in 1993 but is still weaker than what the party had expected just a few months ago.

Fighting against the threshold

According to the forecast, the Christian People’s Party (KRF) is likely to fall below the threshold of 4%. The forecast thus indicates an election result that is the worst since 1936 for the party, which was founded three years prior.

This year’s parliamentary election is the first with Kjell Ingolf Ropstad as its leader – and the first since the party split after the bitter direction election in 2018. At 9 PM, the forecast was at 3.9%.

Government partner and center-left comrade, the Liberal Party (V), is also fighting against the barrier limit and tipped around 4% according to the forecast. When the clock struck 9 on election night, Guri Melby and her people were set to get just above 3.5%.

Collapse for FRP and Høyre

The election’s biggest losers in the number of votes are the Progress Party (FRP) and the Conservatives (H).

The Progress Party is measured at 11.5%, down 3.7% from the previous election. The Conservatives are at 18.7%, down 6.4%.

By all accounts, the election result will thus mean the end of Conservative leader Erna Solberg‘s eight years as prime minister.

The Conservatives struggled hard on the polls already in 2020 but got a big boost when the pandemic hit Norway. Only after “Sushigate” this winter, where Solberg was finally sentenced to a fine for violating the corona rules in connection with a dinner, did the trend reverse.

The Progress Party changed party leader this winter after a period of weak polls, but the promise that the party had hoped for did not materialize.

SV gets 7.7% in the forecast and thus progresses from the 2017 election.

Source: NTB / #NorwayToday / #NorwayTodayNews

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