Climate researchers to develop ‘super-long-term’ forecast

Beautiful sun weather forecast neighbour's treesBeautiful sun. Photo: Norway Today Media

Climate researchers to develop ‘super-long-term’ weather forecast

Norwegian climate scientists and meteorologists will develop a Norwegian seasonal forecast able to provide notice of weather changes up to 100 days in advance.

‘Being able to report several weeks and months ahead of time has enormous value for many users,’ Erik Kolstad, a climate scientist at UNI Climate Research, and Bjerkness Center for Climate Research in Bergen, tells VG newspaper.

Kolstad has received numerous contacts from Norwegian institutions and companies as interested users.

The project has been named ‘Seasonal Forecasting Engine’ or ‘Seasonal Alert Machine’, and was awarded 16 million from Norway’s Research Council.

‘This is a program that will be able to collect all types of data from satellites, computer models, and direct observation.

An advanced data algorithm will combine all of this data to provide notice between 10 to 100 days in advance. For example, it is of great value to be able to give notice to the power industry how much snowfall there will be in an area during winter months’,
Kolstad says.

Ordinary forecasts only for 5 to 10 days

‘We are now in a test phase, and by December we’ll know whether to enter Phase Two, which means that we will be awarded 16 million to continue for four years research and development in cooperation with our users,’ says Kolstad.
Ordinary weather forecasts are usually given between five to ten days in advance. Beyond this, uncertainty is usually too great.


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