NUPI researcher, Jakub Godzimirski, said Russia will not cause an armed conflict with the West. He estimated that there is a 5% risk of war with our neighbour to the east.
Godzimirski has worked at Russian foreign and security policy for 20 years. He does not believe that Russia is aiming for an invasion of Norway, wrote ABC Nyheter newspaper.
Nor does the researcher believe that the relationship with our large neighbour is exacerbated by the fact that 300 US soldiers are on Norwegian soil. It is in contrast to the rhetoric of the chief of the US Navy Infantry on a pre-Christmas visit to the soldiers at Værnes. He talked about a possible big conflict.
‘I hope I’m wrong, but a war is fermenting. Their presence here places you in a fight, an information campaign, and a political struggle,’ said General Robert Neller. Godzimirski said the statement should be taken with a pinch of salt, and is a reminder that ‘generals live for war’.
‘Although Russia can achieve military goals in the short term, it is not in their interest to be involved in a longer conflict. Western Europe is their biggest trading partner’, said Godzimirski. He sees that Russia can present achallenge to the West, but in terms of an information war, rather than by military action.
‘Nothing can be excluded, but I consider the possibility that Norway will end up in an armed conflict with them to be 5%,’ said the researcher.
© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today