Although the United States and Russia are able to agree on a ceasefire for Syria, it is doubtful whether it will have any effect, says researcher.
– The problem is that none of them govern those who fight on the ground, says Knut Vikør, a professor of Middle East history at the University of Bergen, to the news agency NTB.
– I doubt that such an agreement will have any effect, he says, pointing out that Americans have little or no influence on the rebels.
– Thus, the United States get Russia to unilaterally influence government forces to refrain from bombing, says Vikør.
If the Russians were to go along with it, the United States on their side would make deals with rebel groups that Americans do not want to talk to, he points out.
– The US has some influence, via Saudi Arabia, but it is not easy to get to.
While making an unresolved military situation on the ground or a ceasefire even more unlikely.
– Both sides believe they are close to a breakthrough in Aleppo. It could tip the balance. Whoever has control over Aleppo, may take further management. Then there is always reluctance to agree to a ceasefire, saying Vikør.
Source: NTB scanpix / Norway Today