Red-green victory if history repeats itself

Red-Green Støre SolbergPrime Minister Erna Solberg and Ap lead Jonas Gahr Støre during the oral Question Hour in the Storting on Wednesday.Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB scanpix

Red-green victory if the election campaign history is repeated

There is going to be a red-green victory this autumn if the election campaign history from the 2000s repeats, according to a review by the election analyst Svein Tore Marthinsen.


– All election campaigns live their own lives, with unique conditions. My review is no prediction, but I still think it’s interesting to look at how the parties traditionally do during the election campaign, says Marthinsen to NTB.

Marthinsen has blogged about the election campaign history for all elections in the 2000s and calculated the outcome if the trends repeat during the autumn’s parliamentary elections.

The conclusion is 86 mandates and majority to the Labour Party and Centre Party. Together with SV, Red and MDG, they end up with 95 mandates, against 74 for the Conservatives, Progress Party, Liberals and KrF.

Labour Machine

Labour has increased at all four elections in the 2000s; Most modest in 2001, with 2 percentage points growth. The biggest boost came in 2005, with a growth of 3.5 percentage points, while 2009 and 2013 gave a plus of 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points from June to the Election Day.

– The average for AP in the measurements for June is around 32 percent. If we plot in an average boost of 2.5 percentage points, the Labour party ends at around 34 percent, says Marthinsen.

Blue-blue up and down

The Conservatives has had two steep election campaign drops in the 2000s, one weak decline and an election with progress. In 2001, they dropped by 8 percentage points, while the party increased by almost 4 percentage points from June to the election day in 2009. On average, Marthinsen is plotting in a 3 percentage point decline for Høyre.

– From a June average of just over 23 per cent, the conservatives thus ends at around 20 per cent, according to Marthinsen.

The election campaigns gave minor changes to the Progress Party in 2001 and 2013. In 2009, Frp dropped 3 percentage points and in 2005 they went up by 2 percentage points.

– The Frp is now just over 13 percent, which could also be close to the election results if we view the election campaign history as one, says Marthinsen.

More to retrieve for Sp?

The Center Party has a strong election campaign history and normally raises 1 percentage point from June to the Election Day.

– The question is whether Sp has already extracted the potential, and if the election campaign will be more about sustaining the growth than growing further, says Marthinsen. He nevertheless believes that the 13’s are within reach, and that Sp can give Frp a battle to become the country’s third largest party.

Barring limit

KrF have gone both up and down in recent election campaigns.

– KrF is around 4.5 per cent in June. They can hope for numbers around the 5 per cent mark with a development similar to 2013, but they can also fear the barrier limit with a development as in 2009, says Marthinsen.

The Liberals has grown in three of the last four election campaigns.

– The historical figures give the Liberals a legitimate hope to cross the barrier limit from today’s just over 3 percent, is Marthinsen’s conclusion.

SV has dropped in three of the last four election campaigns. The 2001 election is the exception, from 9 to more than 12 per cent.

– History suggests that SV may fall below the threshold, says Marthinsen.

The Greens over?

For MDG, there is little historical data, but in 2013, the “newcomer” managed to grow just over one percentage point from 1.5 in June. The average is now slightly above the election result from 2013.

– With the same growth this year, The Greens might even break the barrier, says Marthinsen.

Red dropped in 2009 and in 2013, while it grew substantially in 2005.

– If Red drops back about half a percentage point, as they did in 2009 and 2013, they end up at around 2 flat, says Marthinsen.


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