90,000 voters have left Labour this month

Jonas Gahr Støre LabourParty leader Jonas Gahr Støre, Norwegian Labour Party. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB scanpix

90,000 voters have left Labour in just one month

The Labour Party has dropped 3.2 percentage points on average of the polls from July to August. 90,000 voters have gone undecided or left for others.


The Labour Party has a support base of 28.9 percent on average based on twelve national polls published so far in August, according to Poll of Polls. The average support for July was 32.1 per cent.

Based on the number of votes cast in the previous parliamentary elections, it means that just over 90,000 Labour voters have either gone sitting on the fence or left for other parties over the last few weeks.

Fixed strategy

The evolution over time is also no joy for Norway’s largest party. In four of the first five polls published this month, Labour was at or above 30 per cent. Currently there have been five polls in a row below 30.

At the end of last year support for Labour was above 36 per cent.

Confronted by VG and Aftenposten, which on Thursday published polls showing Labour support of 27.6 per cent and 27.3 per cent respectively, party leader and Prime Minister candidate, Jonas Gahr Støre, maintains that it is not appropriate to change tack in the election campaign.

– We stick to the strategy. We must be better at reaching the voters who chose for us last time, and are now undecided, Støre says, announcing more powerful and clearer messages in the future.

The Greens (MDG) are in

The Green Party surpases the barrier limit of 4 per cent and gets seven mandates after averaging Thursday’s two polls. Thereby leaving none of the two traditional political blocks with the majority.

Labour, the Socialist Party and the Centre Party get 81 mandates. Additionally Red is in with two. A non-socialist block consisting of the Conservatives, the Progress Party, Christian Democrats and Liberals would have 79 mandates given a election result in line with the average of the polls so far in August.

As late as in June, the average of the polls showed a majority for the three red-green parties of 89 mandates, which would secure a majority in the Parliament without support from either MDG or Red.

Barrier limit

The battle to end up on the right side of the barrier limit is one of the upcoming parliamentary elections big moments of suspense. The Socialist Party (SV) has some head wind in August and is gaining almost 1 percentage point since the summer, and is now slightly bigger than the Christian Democrats (KrF). The average for SV so far in August is 5.2 per cent, but even KrF is progressing and is currently at 5.1 percent.

The Centre Party is still in a position to make a strong election, even with a marked decline in recent weeks. The average so far in August is at 10.7 per cent.

The Liberals are still below the barrier limit, the party has not been on the sunny side since February. But here too, a slight progress is to be found. The Liberals is currently at 3.7 per cent all of the polls in August put together. The Liberals has been on the sunny side of the barrier limit in four polls so far in August.

The support for the Governing parties is remarkably stable. The Conservatives average is currently at 23.6 percent, while FrP is at 13.5 percent.

Red has risen about 1 percentage point since before the summer. An election result of 3.1 percent, which is the average so far in August, would according to mandate calculation made by Poll of Polls given them two mandates.


© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today