Optimism broadly cemented throughout Norway
Optimism for the Norwegian economy is rising, the forecast barometer for Q1 2018 shows. People in Trøndelag and Northern Norway are now more positive, and Norwegians want to spend more money on travel and larger acquisitions in general.
There is increased optimism in all parts of the country, but especially Trøndelag and Northern Norway stand out with a marked increase from the previous quarter.
– It is a strong signal that optimism is now widely cemented throughout the country, says CEO of Finance Norway, Idar Kreutzer.
Whilst optimism has increased in all parts of the country, the number of people who think about spending money on large purchases has increased markedly since the previous survey.
The expectation barometer is a quarterly collaboration between Finans Norge and Kantar TNS. The barometer measures Norwegian households’ expectations for their own and the country’s economy and consists of five single indicators that then are merged.
Norwegians more willing to travel
The main indicator is increasing and the increase from the fourth quarter last year, and so far this year, shows that we are soon at the same level as before the drop in the oil price occurred in 2014.
The indicator that has had one of the biggest increases this quarter is Norwegians’ willingness to spend money on travel. Disregarding 2013, we have to go back to the first quarter of 2008 to find higher lust to travel.
“This may coincide with the fact that Norwegians generally feel economically safe. Actual wage increase has been weak for the last two years, which has contributed to the fact that people have held back on their consumption.
– At the same time, the Norwegian kroner was stronger measured against the dollar and the euro when the survey was conducted than in the previous quarter. This may have helped us to be more positive towards spending more money on travel and holidays, Kreutzer says.
The young and the highly educated
The youngest age group, those between the ages of 15 and 29, is more optimistic towards the future than the oldest.
– The youngest age group in the survey is usually the most optimistic. We should be pleased about that. It’s good that those who are on their way into working life have faith in the future and the opportunity for having a good working life, Kreutzer says, and continues:
– We also note that those with the highest education, more than four years at university or college, and those in the highest income groups are more positive than the other groups. This indicates that those with the highest education feel the best prepared towards changes in their working life. We are however concerned that the difference in confidence in the future between those with high and low income seems to increase. We emphasize this, including through our annual conference in March, which has the theme “inside – outside” this year, where increasing inequality in many of the parameters will be highlighted.
Facts about the Expectation Barometer
- Quarterly survey where a cross section of the Norwegian population (about 1,000 people in the telephone interviews) are being asked about expectations for their own and the country’s economy.
- The survey is collaboration between Finans Norge and Kantar TNS. The surveys were initiated in 1992.
Expectation Barometer 2017/2018
|Q1 2017||Q2 2017||Q3 2017||Q4 2017||Q1 2018|
Main indicator, adjusted for season
Norway, Last year
Norway, Next year
Own Economy, Last year
Own Economy, Next year
EU, adjusted for season
© Finans Norge / #Norway Today