Economist calls the ‘elderly wave’ a bluff

Grandfather with his grandchildGrandfather with his grandchild.Photo: Jan Haas / NTB scanpix NB! MODELLKLARERT

Economist Sindre Farstad denied the elderly wave and believes that the percentage of employed people will not decrease with healthier elderly. A professor agrees and calls it a bluff.


Economist Sindre Farstad cited the ‘elders wave’ with reference to the fact that the percentage of employed will not fall in the future if there are fewer children and more healthy elderly.

The idea of the elderly wave is derived from forecasts which show that today there are 2.7 employed people in order to support each pensioner, while there will only be 1.6 employed who do the same job in 2060, according to Klassekampen newspaper.It could go beyond welfare.

However, in a recent article in the journal ‘Fagbladet samfund & økonomi,’ advisor Sindre Farstad of the Pensioners’ Association claimed that this is a violent exaggeration.He assumes that the working age will increase in line with the expected increase in life expectancy. It is said there will be fewer employed compared to the rest of the population in the future.

“It often creates a ‘scare image’ by showing that there will be far more elderly in the future.

But one can expect that a 65-year-old in 2060 will be in better health than a 65-year-old today Farstad pointed out.

He is supported by Professor Bjarne Jensen at the University College in the Netherlands.He was the editor of the issue of the magazine where the article was printed.

Jensen said the idea of the elderly wave is a bluff.

“I think this is a construction designed to scare people to accept solutions that they would not otherwise agree with,’’ he said about the term “elderly wave “.


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