Statistics Norway believes that interest rate hikes will lead to a lending rate of 3.8%.
Statistics Norway believes we will get six interest rate hikes of 0.25% by the end of 2021, something the agency believes will mean a lending rate on the budget of 3.8%, approximately 1% higher than in 2017.
Statistics Norway shows its economic forecasts for 2021.
Furthermore, SSB believes that house prices will rise moderately over the next 2-3 years and that real price levels will be lower in 2021 than in 2017, although nominal prices may be higher.
The report further stated that the expected high oil price suggests a strengthening of the krone, and SSB believes that one euro will cost nine kroner in 2021. It is 90 øre higher than the historical average for the euro.
Pursuing oil investments
Statistics Norway estimated that oil investments will increase by 4.3% this year, before growth shifts to 10.1% next year.
There is a significant upward adjustment from the previous report, which projected growth of 2.4% this year and 3.8% next year.
By 2020, the statistics agency believes investment growth will fall to 3.9% before a small fall of 0.4% in 2021.
“From 2016, the fall in petroleum investments has gradually expanded, and in the future, increased investments are expected by operators on the Norwegian continental shelf,” wrote SSB.
It was shown that the development of Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 is the biggest contributor.
‘’Lower costs and expectations of high oil prices make more petroleum investments profitable. There are now plans for more new developments, but in many cases it is uncertain when they will arrive. We believe petroleum investments will pick up in the next few years and that this will take over as an important driver of the moderate economic upturn,” said the statistics bureau.
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