Norwegians are more skeptical about Norway’s economy now than it was three months ago, but they have little faith in their own private finances, the Expectation Barometer (Forventningsbarometeret) shows.
There is a broad mood shift in the negative direction in all groups of the population, the Expectation Barometer for the fourth quarter shows.
– There has been a lot of talk of weak Norwegian kroner among the economists this fall, and it is possible it has affected people’s assessment of the Norwegian economy. On the other hand, it has probably also come to light that a weak Norwegian krone is good for the export industry, which can provide increased job security, says CEO Idar Kreutzer of Finance Norway.
The expectation barometer is a quarterly collaboration between Finans Norge and Kantar TNS. The barometer measures Norwegian households’ expectations of their own and the country’s economy and consists of five individual indicators (questions) that are gathered in one main indicator.
Weak crown affects
A positive number means that there are more optimists than pessimists, and the size of the number shows how many more there are in one or the other group. For the fourth quarter, which we are now halfway through, the main indicator is 13.4, down from 15.0 three months ago.
Since 2013, the trend has been that the Norwegian krone has depreciated. In 2013 the price was around 7.50 NOK for a euro, but now you have to spend with just over 10 NOK. This is a sharp weakening and an expression of the fact that foreigners increasingly opt out of Norwegian kroner. The decline in expectations may indicate that this is about to sink in, according to Kreutzer.
Clock faith in own finances
Although Norwegian households have become less optimistic in their future financial faith, the belief in our own private economy in the future remains positive and is rising somewhat. But Norwegians also consider our own economy last year as something more negative.
Kreutzer believes this is due to interest rate increases at Norges Bank.
– At the same time, we have learned that Norges Bank has announced a delay in further interest rate rises, and that a useful pay settlement is forecast next year, says Kreutzer.
At the same time, the expectation barometer shows that households’ savings requirements are at their highest ever. Finans Norge believes this is due to a growing understanding that it is important to save for retirement.
The figures still show that there are voters who vote for the government parties, which are far more optimistic than those who vote for the opposition. However, this quarter has seen both sides evenly over a strong decline in the belief in future economic developments.
© NTB Scanpix / #Norway Today