6 month support for a change of Government
The opposition would get 91 mandates and a clear majority in Parliament if it had been elections now. This is shown by an average of eight national polls from April that Poll of polls has calculated.
Today’s co-operation between the Conservatives, Progress Party, Liberals and Christian Democrats has not had a majority on the average of the polls since last October.
Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre would have been able to form a Government with the support of the Centre Party and the Socialist Party (89 mandates) or with the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats (90 seats) provided a general election in line with the average for April.
Half a year of Labour decline
For strategists in the Labour Party must still be troubling that Labour has had a declining curve during the same period of time. The turnout in April totalled 31.7 percent. That is 0.8 percentage points lower than in March, and down 4.9 percentage points from last October.
The majority rescued by a good margin of the Centre of rapid growth and that SV seems to have stabilized over the threshold. With a response rate of 12.3 percent (+0.7), the Centre Party is now in near equal in size with the Progress Party, which in April had an average of 12.8 per cent (+0.2). At the same time, SV increased to 4.6 per cent (+0.2). The Socialists (SV) thereby had its strongest month so far in the current parliamentary period.
The liberals still below 4 percent points
The Liberals continues on a slumping curve. While the March party only lacked a few thousand votes to reach the barring limit, the distance further increased in April. The Liberals ended at 3.7 percent (-0.3), which is the party’s weakest month during this term.
Collaborator Christian Democrats also had little headwind in April, and the party faces the number 4 for the first time in a long time with an average of 4.8 percent (-0.3).
Erna Solberg’s Conservatives remained stable at 23.3 per cent (0.1). Overall would the Conservatives and the Progress Party gain 67 seats in an election with those numbers. That is one mandate more than in the previous month, but ten fewer than at the general election in 2013.
The fight against the barring limit can be crucial on election night. In April, three parties were below the barring threshold on one or more polls. The Liberals landed in the 3’s in six out of the eight polls, SV on one and KrF was under on two occasions.
Calculations made by Poll of polls show how tight it is between the blocks with only minor changes – If the Liberals are adjusted to 4.0 percent, SV to 3.99 and the remaining parties are kept unchanged, the opposition’s majority shrinks from 91-78 to 85-84.
© NTB Scanpix / Norway Today