Solberg & Co in trouble before negotiations

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Solberg & Co in trouble before Government talks

Neither Liberals nor Christian Democrats experience any progress on the polls in December, which gives a clear Red-Green majority because Red is above the barrier threshold.


Prime Minister Erna Solberg (Conservatives) is just a tough round of negotiations away from gathering the non-socialist, fulfilling what she has dreamed about for many years.

The support for the four parties that over the New Year sits down to negotiate a majority government gives little reason to rejoice.

Both the Liberals and Christian Democrats are well below the threshold, the Progress Party experiences one of its weakest polls in 2018 and the Conservatives have dropped in popularity over the past three months.

In summary, shows the site pollofpolls’ average of national measurements for December that Solberg’s four parties would have 75 mandates if there were general elections today.

Red-Green with the wind in the sails

The Red-Green parties, including the Green Party (MDG) and Red, would receive 94 mandates by comparison.

But with MDG and Red left out, the Labour Party leader, Jonas Gahr Støre, would have had a majority together with the Centre Party (SP) and Socialists (SV), albeit with only the tiniest margin of 85 mandates.

Labour (Ap) receives support from 27.7 per cent of voters in December. This is a decline of 1 percentage point compared to November, but a high figure measured against 2018 as a whole. Both the Centre Party and Socialists are doing well in December, to 11.4 and 7.0 per cent respectively.

Red has tipped over and below the barrier threshold throughout the year and is an x-factor on the Red-Green side. In December, the party with 4.1 per cent voting support remains above the barrier.

For the MDG, 2018 did not bring any upturn. The party receives support from 3.0 per cent of the voters in December and has not been above the barrier limit since August last year.

Tough in the centre

For both the Liberals and Christian Democrats, the picture is gloomy before the two centre parties are negotiating a majority Government. The Liberals receive support from 3.6 per cent of the voters and have not been above the barrier limit since June this year. Figures over 4 per cent in the months after the party entered the Government in January has been followed by a large number of weaker polls this autumn.

With only 3.6 per cent support, the Christian Democrats (KrF) have their second weakest poll in December for many years. Only in September of this year, the party experienced a weaker result, with 3.5 points. The December result also means that the Christian Democrats lands below the threshold for the third time this year.

The Conservatives (Høyre) have held up in the polls earlier this year, but now the arrows point down for the country’s second largest party. Conservatives receive support from 25.0 per cent of the voters and drop for the third consecutive month. The figure is the weakest since September last year and is exactly the same as the party’s election results.

The Progress Party (Frp) receives support from 13.0 per cent of voters in December. This is an increase of 0.2 percentage points since November and at the same time the party’s second weakest figure in 2018.


© NTB scanpix / #Norway Today