NAV believes unemployment will remain at a stable, low level until 2021.
As a proportion of the labor force, registered unemployment will remain stable at 2.2 per cent in 2020 and 2021, according to NAV’s recent labor market forecast.
“Norway is still experiencing a moderate upswing, but we expect growth in the Norwegian economy to slow down over the next two years. This will mean that employment growth will slow down and that the number of unemployed persons will increase slightly until 2021,” says NAV Director Sigrun Vågeng.
The seasonally adjusted figures show that the number of unemployed persons has decreased by 3,900 during 2019. The number of registered unemployed persons will fall from an average of 65,500 last year to 63,000 this year, according to the NAV forecast. This corresponds to an unemployment rate of 2.3 per cent of the workforce, compared to 2.4 per cent last year. For 2020 and 2021, NAV expects an average of 63,000 and 64,000 fully unemployed, which is equivalent to 2.2 per cent of the workforce over both years.
At the same time, the Directorate expects employment to increase slowly in the future. On average, there will be 34,000 more employees in 2021 than this year, according to the forecast.
NAV believes growth in the Norwegian economy will slow down next year, pointing to a decline in oil investment. Growth in housing investment is slowing, and the forecast also assumes lower growth in exports.
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