Infection rates will continue on a downward trend, FHI predicts

Line VoldOslo.Line Vold, Public Health Institute (FHI).Photo: Fredrik Varfjell / NTB scanpix

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It is most likely that the number of coronavirus infections will continue to decline until the end of May, according to the latest calculations from the Institute of Public Health (FHI).

In its latest scenario, FHI estimates that up to May 12, an average of 155 Norwegians will be infected daily by Covid-19. The figure will drop to 143 the following week and the figure will be 136 in three weeks, according to the report dated May 5.

The figures include those infected both with and without symptoms of illness.

At the same time, FHI believes that the number of hospital admissions will drop to 34 by May 25. Of these, 12 will need respiratory treatment.

Today, the number of infections (R) is around 0.6, that is each infected on average spreads the corona virus to fewer than one new person. However, should the number of infections increase from the end of May as a result of a number of coronavirus  measures being eased, FHI sets out three possible scenarios:

At an infection rate of 1.1, the outbreak will gradually increase from September and reach a peak with between 400 and 500 hospital admissions in January.

If the number of infections increases to 1.2, the peak will be earlier with close to 1,400 hospital admissions in December.

With an infection rate of 1.3, a much higher infection peak will come in October, with between 2,600 and nearly 2,800 hospital admissions.

However, the likelihood of such a development is very small, emphasised the FHI Department Director Line Vold to NTB.

“We estimate that the likelihood that more than 1,000 intensive care units will be needed is 1.5 per cent,” the report said.

The likelihood that more than 500 intensive care units will be needed is estimated at 2.5 per cent.

© NTB Scanpix / #Norway Today

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2 Comments on "Infection rates will continue on a downward trend, FHI predicts"

  1. Good. FHI has now committed itself – its professional/medical credibility – to saying infection rates will decline even though there is no vaccine, “social distancing” (especially with reduced rush hour distancing) is inadequate, and it still refuses to urge everyone to facemask.

    I do *hope* that Kamilla Stoltenberg, Line Vold, and Bent Høie are right, but I don’t see how they can be.

    So now we shall wait and see … with everyone being put at risk and the wonderful success (and the sacrifices) of the early extreme lockdown at grave risk of being thrown away.

    If(?) they are wrong, they will have to be replaced by others who are more realistic.

    ***

    Meanwhile in Sweden, “medical expert” Tegnell claims he did not expect the extreme high “herd immunity” death toll. It was/is his JOB to predict what would happen … accurately … and to urge realistic steps to stop the virus killing so many of his people. He is either professionally stupid or cynically lying to try to cover himself from being prosecuted.

  2. By the way, on video chat last night I talked to family who live at opposite ends of the States, and they and everyone around them are facemasking.
    My sister had questioned me questioning the previous official line in the States that the public generally should not facemask … but now she’s facemasking … and I, her older brother, am enjoying a little more family discussion credibility. 🙂

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