Infection rates will continue on a downward trend, FHI predicts
It is most likely that the number of coronavirus infections will continue to decline until the end of May, according to the latest calculations from the Institute of Public Health (FHI).
In its latest scenario, FHI estimates that up to May 12, an average of 155 Norwegians will be infected daily by Covid-19. The figure will drop to 143 the following week and the figure will be 136 in three weeks, according to the report dated May 5.
The figures include those infected both with and without symptoms of illness.
At the same time, FHI believes that the number of hospital admissions will drop to 34 by May 25. Of these, 12 will need respiratory treatment.
Today, the number of infections (R) is around 0.6, that is each infected on average spreads the corona virus to fewer than one new person. However, should the number of infections increase from the end of May as a result of a number of coronavirus measures being eased, FHI sets out three possible scenarios:
At an infection rate of 1.1, the outbreak will gradually increase from September and reach a peak with between 400 and 500 hospital admissions in January.
If the number of infections increases to 1.2, the peak will be earlier with close to 1,400 hospital admissions in December.
With an infection rate of 1.3, a much higher infection peak will come in October, with between 2,600 and nearly 2,800 hospital admissions.
However, the likelihood of such a development is very small, emphasised the FHI Department Director Line Vold to NTB.
“We estimate that the likelihood that more than 1,000 intensive care units will be needed is 1.5 per cent,” the report said.
The likelihood that more than 500 intensive care units will be needed is estimated at 2.5 per cent.
© NTB Scanpix / #Norway Today
